El Niño Winter 2026-27 for Nomads: What Changes, Place by Place

What do the agencies say about this winter's El Niño?

That a strong El Niño is under way and will last into early 2027, with local detail that differs by country. Every statement below carries its date; the agencies update monthly, so check the link before you book.

• NOAA, global picture (8 October 2026). El Niño Advisory in force; "strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027", with the central Pacific sea surface about two degrees above average at the time. The next discussion is due on 12 November.
• BMKG, Indonesia (22 September). A very strong El Niño, and a rainy season that starts later than usual over about 61% of the country; most of Bali starts in December. Our Bali rainy season page covers it in full, and BMKG's press release is the source.
• TMD, Thailand (14 October). Cool season about one week late, ending around mid-February, with night lows in upper Thailand about two degrees above normal and milder than last year; the south's east coast stays wet until early January. TMD expects El Niño to strengthen late in the year and persist into early 2027 (report of the announcement).
• PAGASA, Philippines (outlook reported 22 October). A strong El Niño to persist into the first quarter of 2027; drought expected in 12 areas by the end of November, and prolonged dry spells in the Visayas and Mindanao (GMA News). PAGASA has said average temperatures could rise by one to two degrees.
• SMN, Mexico (reported 4 September). El Niño to keep strengthening and peak near the end of the year; 56 cold fronts expected for September to May against an average of 50 (Expansión). The December outlook is above-average rain in the northwest, below average in the west and south.
• IDEAM, Colombia (24 October). This El Niño could be the most intense in 76 years of measurements; December likely the peak and December and January the most critical months, effects into the first half of 2027 (Infobae interview). IDEAM says rain totals are already below what a normal season brings.
• ENFEN, Peru. Its latest communiqué is no. 19-2026, dated 30 October (list). We could not read its text from our server, so we do not quote it.
• BoM, Australia. The Bureau confirmed El Niño in mid-June and its long-range outlook of the time pointed to reduced rain over much of the east and south (Time Out, 4 August). We could not open its current Queensland outlook, so we give none.

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How did past El Niño winters compare with normal in our data?

Dry and hot in some places, and no pattern at all in others. We took the two El Niño winters inside our 2015-2025 window, 2015-16 and 2023-24, and set December to April against the mean of the ten winters from 2015-16 to 2024-25. Every column comes from the same source, the Open-Meteo archive, computed the same way, so the comparison is like for like.

Read it with the limits in view. Two winters are a small sample, and this is not a forecast for 2026-27. The normal contains both El Niño winters, which makes it a little too kind to them. The archive is a weather model, not a station record, and its rain totals can differ from the place pages, which use satellite rain data where our rules allow. For the same reason a rain figure here should be read as a comparison between winters, not as a number to plan a budget around.

Which places change most from December to April?

Palawan (El Nido and Coron). The clearest case. Rain from December to April was 149 mm in 2015-16 and 127 mm in 2023-24, against a normal 424 mm, with 8 and 4 rain days against 25. Highs ran about one degree above normal. PAGASA's 22 October outlook lists Palawan for dry spells, not drought, and a dry winter here means little rain in an already dry season, and a thin water supply for small islands.

Chiang Mai. Dry both winters (39 and 90 mm against a normal 140 mm), but the news is the heat: April highs were 39 degrees in both El Niño years against a normal 35°C. The cool season is not the issue, it is the hot dry run into the burning season. TMD's forecast of milder nights fits that picture. Our Chiang Mai burning season guide has the smoke numbers for February to April; we give numbers only and leave health advice to the authorities.

Phuket. Drier than normal both winters, but not by the same amount: 96 mm in 2015-16 and 328 mm in 2023-24, against a normal 423 mm. December 2015 had 29 mm against a normal 133 mm. Highs were above normal in 2023-24 (33°C against 31°C). The Andaman coast is usually the dry side in winter; TMD's wet warning is for the east coast.

Canggu, Bali. The two winters disagree. 2015-16 was about normal over the five months (1,294 mm against 1,266 mm) but with a wet February of 537 mm; 2023-24 was drier at 922 mm, with just 134 mm in December. That fits BMKG's late-start message and no more: a late start moves the first wet weeks, not the January peak. Nothing here says Bali goes dry.

Medellín. IDEAM expects December and January to be the most critical months, with less rain than normal. Our two winters point in different directions: 907 mm in 2015-16, wetter than the normal 820 mm, with 407 mm in April 2016, and 540 mm in 2023-24, with just 37 mm in January 2024. Highs were above normal in both winters (about 28 degrees against 26 degrees). Treat a drier December as the agency's forecast, not as a given.

Cairns, Queensland. The best argument against pattern-reading: 905 mm in 2015-16, a dry Wet season, and 2,339 mm in 2023-24, a very wet one, with 836 mm in December 2023 alone. The normal is 1,569 mm. If you plan a Queensland stay, plan for a wet season whose size nobody can give you.

Puerto Escondido and Lima. Both are dry in these months, so the rain barely changes: Puerto Escondido had 42 and 33 mm over five months against a normal 27 mm, and Lima 73 and 24 mm against 56 mm. The signal is heat: Puerto Escondido's 2023-24 highs were about 33°C against a normal 31°C. In the Mexico case, the SMN's cold-front signal is mostly for the north and the Gulf side.

Where should you be, month by month, if the agencies are right?

Use this as a plan, not as a promise, and keep the first booking short.

• December. The rains in Bali start late, so Canggu is better than usual early in the month, but December is still wet in our normals. Phuket is the dry option on the Andaman side. In Colombia IDEAM expects a drier December than normal, which suits Medellín if it happens; see best time to visit Medellín. Our Thailand in December guide has the Gulf side, which TMD expects to stay wet until early January.
• January. Dry in Chiang Mai and Phuket, warm and wet in Bali: see Bali or Thailand in January. Palawan is the dry-season choice, with water supply the open question.
• February. TMD's cool season ends around mid-February. After it, Chiang Mai's smoke and heat begin; Thailand in February has the choice of coast.
• March and April. The hot months in northern Thailand. If you want the sun without the heat, look at where is warm in March rather than a hot, dry Chiang Mai. Puerto Escondido and Lima are dry and warm regardless; Cairns is a gamble on the Wet season.

What can't anyone tell you yet?

How much rain falls in any single place. Agencies give a tilt of the odds for a season, not a total, and the two winters we hold disagree in three of eight places. The strength of the event is also moving: NOAA's next discussion is due on 12 November, and the peak, which several agencies place near the end of the year, is still ahead of us. We hold no forecast and we have not made one.

What we can promise is that this page will be updated when NOAA's next discussion lands and when the agencies we could not read fully, ENFEN in Peru and the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia, are checked. If you are a journalist, our data sources page lists how we count.