Bali Rainy Season 2026-27: Starting Late, What El Niño Changes, and Where to Be November to January

When does Bali's rainy season start in 2026?

Later than usual, if BMKG, Indonesia's weather agency, is right. In its press release of 22 September 2026 BMKG says a very strong El Niño is under way and that the 2026-27 rainy season will start later than its long-run average in about 61% of Indonesia's land area. For Bali and Nusa Tenggara Barat it says parts start in November 2026 and most start in December 2026, with central Bali peaking in January 2027 and most of Bali in February 2027.

The Bali office of BMKG said the same to RRI on 7 October 2026: of Bali's 20 seasonal zones, a small number start in November and most of the rest in December. It also warned that the north and east, from Karangasem to Buleleng, risk clean-water shortages after the long dry spell. Le Petit Journal's Bali edition, reporting the outlook on 1 October, adds that last year's season began in October, or in September in some areas, and that this one is expected to be shorter as well as later.

These are BMKG's forecasts, not ours. We do not forecast, and zone dates differ between BMKG's release and press reports, so check BMKG's own map for your area as the date gets closer.

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What does El Niño change, and what does it not?

The timing. BMKG links the delay to a very strong El Niño combined with an Indian Ocean Dipole that is heading positive, which together make the dry period longer. It does not say the wet months disappear: it expects totals near the seasonal norm over almost 70% of Indonesia, the season to be shorter in about half the country, and floods and landslides to remain a concern at the peak.

What we do not have is a record for each year. Our climate data holds monthly averages for 2015-2025, so we cannot show what any single winter looked like, and we will not guess at a total for this one. What the averages can say is how wet a normal November, December and January is, and so how much a few weeks of delay is worth.

What does a normal year look like?

Wet, and getting wetter from October. The strip shows rain per month in our 2015-2025 averages for Canggu and for Phuket, the escape. The ringed months are the ones BMKG expects to start late.

In a normal year November is already wet in Canggu (204 mm), and it climbs to 288 mm in December and 313 mm in January. So a late start moves the day the wet season really begins, not the fact that December and January are wet. A delay most likely helps in November. It helps less towards December, and BMKG's peak in January or February is not moved much.

The catch is that the water has to come at some point. A dry October followed by a late start can mean heavy bursts instead of a gentle build-up. We cannot show that from our data, so read it as a reason to stay flexible, not as a prediction.

Where should you be from November to January?

November: Canggu or Uluwatu, while the delay lasts. The difference between them is small, so choose on how you work; our Canggu vs Uluwatu vs Ubud guide covers that. December and January: no Bali base is dry, so choose by the flat, the covered workspace and the internet, not by the numbers. Lombok is no help in this window (227 mm in November, 257 in December and 250 in January); its dry season is July to September, see best time to visit Bali by area.

If you only care about sun, the data says Phuket from December, not Bali. The trap is going to Phuket in October, when it gets 393 mm, three times Canggu's 107 mm, and November is still about as wet as Bali. Our Bali or Thailand in January guide compares the two for that month.

Where to be from November to January

• Canggu

  204 mm in Nov313 mm in Jan

  The least rain of the three Bali bases in October and November. From December no Bali base is dry.

  Suits: november, if you want Bali and the coast

• Uluwatu

  227 mm in Nov391 mm in Jan

  A little behind Canggu in November. The wettest of the three by December.

  Suits: november on the cliffs; then expect the peak

• Ubud

  249 mm in Nov332 mm in Jan

  The wettest base in November. The coolest nights, 23°C.

  Suits: anyone who prefers the valley; base on the coast if rain worries you

• Phuket

  213 mm in Nov80 mm in Dec73 mm in Jan

  Still wet in November. The dry option from December.

  Suits: a sunny December and January

What would we do?

Treat BMKG's forecast as a reason to keep dates flexible, not to expect a dry winter. Book November in Bali on a monthly rolling basis, check BMKG's updates through November, and decide on December in the first week of the month. A plan that suits most nomads who want both: November in Canggu or Uluwatu while the delay lasts, then Phuket from December. If you must be in Bali in January or February, accept the rain and pick for the roof, the internet and the drainage on your street; the Bali rainy season guide covers how nomads handle it.