Weather for Digital Nomads: How to Read Forecasts, Climate Averages and Rain Days

What is the short answer on weather for nomads?

Use two tools for two jobs. A forecast tells you about the next seven days. A climate average, which is the typical weather for that month over many years, tells you what to expect when you are choosing where to be next month or next season. Most mistakes come from using one for the other: booking a month from a forecast that cannot see that far, or planning a Tuesday from an average.

Then read more than the temperature. Rain days, humidity and air quality change how a month feels to work in, and the average high alone hides all three. The numbers below come from our stored climate data, the same data behind each destination page.

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When do I use a forecast, and when an average?

A forecast is worth using for about a week, and for deciding rain or no rain rather than the hour of the storm. Beyond that, the honest answer is the climate average. The average does not know whether this year is a wet one, but it knows that Lisbon in August is dry and in January is not.

That table is why nobody needs a forecast to know Lisbon is a poor choice for sun in January and a good one in August, and why Canggu is the other way round. Use the average to pick the month, then the forecast in the last week to pick the day for the beach.

What does a "rain day" mean?

In our numbers a rain day is a day with at least two millimetres of rain, or at least four in the tropics. Our data comes from a weather model, and in the tropics the model spreads light drizzle over almost every day. With the higher line there, our counts match what real rain gauges record as rain days. The full method is on the data sources page.

Weather models and weather sites count rain days differently, which is why you will find anything from a handful to more than twenty rain days for the same month on different pages: see why a weather model says Bali rains 25 days in August. A rain day is not a rainy day from dawn to dusk. It is a day that had enough rain to register, and in the tropics that is often one short, heavy shower in the afternoon or at night.

Does a month full of rain days mean it rains all day?

No. Canggu in January is as wet as a Bali month gets: 19 rain days out of 31 and 313 mm of rain. That still leaves 12 dry days, and on most of the wet ones the sky clears for part of the day. In August the same place has 4 rain days and 56 mm. The year, with the rain line on the temperature band, looks like this:

Averages 2015-2025 · Source: Open-Meteo · How we measure

A share of days with rain, or a "probability of rain", is not the same as rain falling all day either. Read it as how many days in the month are affected, then ask how long the rain lasts, which averages cannot tell you. For the wet season in practice, see the Bali rainy season guide.

Why do humidity and "feels like" matter more than the high?

Because two places with the same temperature can feel very different. Canggu in January has an average high of about 29°C with humidity near 86%, and Lisbon in August has a high of about 29°C with humidity near 67%. Sweat does not evaporate as well in damp air, so the first feels hotter and sleep is harder without air conditioning.

Chiang Mai shows the same swing within one place: humidity is about 70% in January and about 87% in August. If you work from a room without aircon, humidity belongs next to temperature in your search.

What about wind?

Wind matters for coasts and islands: a breeze makes a hot day bearable and a stormy week hard to sit through. Our data has an average wind speed per month, but it is a monthly average and cannot show a gale on one day, so treat it as a rough comparison between places and check the forecast for the week you travel.

Is air quality part of the weather?

For some places it is the weather. Chiang Mai has a smoke season in the dry months, and Hanoi and Bangkok have winter haze, which a temperature chart does not show. Even in Bali, air quality changes over the year. If you have asthma or work with the window open, check the air page before you book a month that otherwise looks perfect.

Do microclimates change the answer?

Yes, within a short distance. In Bali the south coast and the hills inland differ by month; see Bali by area. On Madeira the north and south coasts differ again. A city-level average is a good start, but if the island or region has two sides, read the area guide before you pick a base.

How do I choose a month in six steps?

1. Write down the dates you can move, and the dates you cannot.
2. Look up the climate average for each candidate place for those months, not a forecast.
3. Check rain days first, then rainfall, and read the rain-day rule for that region.
4. Compare humidity and night temperature if you do not have aircon.
5. Check the air quality page for places with smoke or haze seasons.
6. In the last week before you travel, switch to a forecast and adjust the days, not the destination.

Our month guides follow the same steps for single places. Weather is not the only thing that decides a base, but it is the part you can look up before you commit.